LEGISLATIVE UPDATE | WEEK EIGHT

FEBRUARY 24 - 28, 2025

Every legislative session is unique, sometimes defined by seismic policy fights, pre-primary election posturing, or budgetary standoffs that stretch the session weeks beyond a Sine Die deadline predicted by even the savviest state political pundits. But before we start the annual guessing game of when the Idaho Legislature will adjourn, let’s take a moment to note the differences in this session.

What makes this legislative session stand out is the fundamental shift we’re seeing in how leadership, specifically House leadership, approaches the question of balancing revenue and spending. The established approach to balancing the state’s budget has been to set revenue targets first, then meet those targets with heavily scrutinized spending decisions on agency budgets, policy initiatives, and socking money away. Once this is done, the Legislature begins the task of finding dollars for tax relief. This has been the tradition and process for decades.

This year, House leaders are flipping the script. This new approach is evident in how the House pushed through massive tax cuts – valued at more than $450 million annually – early and before reaching consensus on budget forecast numbers or program requests. This effectively cemented House Speaker Mike Moyle’s determination to make cutting taxes the top priority for this year’s work and set the stage for all that comes next.

But the status quo change has injected chaos and paralysis into the session’s eighth week. For example, two out of the three big tax bills – cuts to income and sales tax on groceries – are stockpiled in the Senate, awaiting floor debates or tweaks. To protect its negotiating position, the House is holding the property tax bill as a bargaining chip.

The ability of the policy committees to determine the impact of legislation and rules, and their associated costs, is more ambiguous than ever. Subsequently, many old programs are being considered for cuts or repeal. New programs are scarce at this point. The shift is also slowing the pace for spending and policy decisions elsewhere as maintenance budgets are hitting the House and Senate. JFAC is ramping up enhancement budget decisions without showing any savings in time from the budget process adopted by the committee a year ago.

The only major tax policy to clear so far is HB 93, the $50 million child tax credit for private schools. It was signed into law this week by Gov. Little thanks perhaps in part to a nudge from President Trump encouraging Little to sign it. So far, it’s safe to call this the crowning achievement of the most conservative Legislature in Idaho history.

While policy bills continue to meander through the committee and floor process, committee chairs have rejected or held many. While the deadline for sending bills to the opposite chamber arrives Monday, we still expect to see a healthy number of new ones to be endorsed for consideration by the House Ways & Means Committee.

Here’s a snapshot of where things stand as we reach March. Deals are to be made over healthcare/Medicaid and education program cuts. Water issues need to be resolved, transportation puzzles solved, and tax cut decisions for the Senate need to be made. All of this will play out as the tensions and impatience we mentioned last week intensify.

We are at the point where the Governor is treating bills. You can track activity on his website by clicking the Daily Tracker. Most will get his signature, but he’s shown that allowing laws to go into effect without it has advantages. There is always a veto possibility, but that move always raises the question of how the House and Senate will respond.